Yes, it’s still a long way until election day, and yes, anything can still happen.  However, it is interesting that in the last two months, Arlen Specter’s re-election prospects have grown increasingly dim.

Two months ago, in a Rasmussen poll of Pennsylvania voters, Specter led his Republican rival Pat Toomey by double digits.  The spread was 50% to 39%, giving Specter an 11 point advantage.  Today, the same poll shows Specter trailing 48% to 36% – a deficit of 12 points.  In addition, the poll shows Specter being viewed unfavorably by 54% of the voters while only 43% view him favorably.

 Most pundits are blaming the series of ugly town hall healthcare reform meetings for the decline in Specter’s numbers, but the bill itself may be the bigger problem.  According to Rasmussen’s polling 53% of Senator Specter’s constituents oppose the reform he’s been promoting.  In addition, Specter was one of only three Republicans to vote for the President’s stimulus package – a vote that was highly unpopular in his home state.

A more immediate concern for Specter?  His lead in the primaries has begun to dry up.  If it continues apace, there’s a good chance he won’t even be the Democrats nominee. 

Here at The Robalution, we hope Specter (who switched parties to avoid exactly this situation) hangs on to his health care reform position, because if these polls are any indication, the issue seems to be doing Democrats a world of good.

- Robert Laurie